I only make predictions that are easy. That’s why they come true. I have no formula.
You can do it, too. Just apply appropriate historical precedent, context and logic.
Prediction: Syria will keep the vast majority of their chemical weapons and Iran will have nuclear bombs.
The timeline for Syria is easier than that for Iran, as Israel will likely do all they can to stop Iran with or without back-up from the U.S. Geiger counters still click over parts of Syria where Israel slowed Iran’s supply of nuclear development gear.
Put on your muck boots & let’s take a slog through the History of the Contemporary Democratic Party’s De-Nuclearization of Tyrants.
When it became apparent North Korea was developing a nuclear weapon, Bill Clinton talked tough and sent Jimmy Carter to come up with a plan that would make it look like the U.S. was doing something.
Mr. Carter, whose reputation as a peacemaker came from his role in a deal wherein Egypt and Israel had already agreed on general terms and were looking for a middleman with deep pockets to formalize it, came home with a terrific deal for the North Koreans. The U.S. would give North Korea two light water nuclear reactors and half a million metric tons of oil every year if North Korea would promise to pretend not to build any nuclear weapons.
North Korea played relatively nicely and didn’t engage in any truly belligerent behavior for a good four years.
Then they launched a missile over northern Japan.
Clinton responded as he always did. He talked tough and gave Pyongyang $15 million.
Right now, Obama is talking tough on Syria while Bashar al-Assad is writing him the bill for $1.4 billion to “remove” the chemical weapons.